Working‐correlation‐structure identification in generalized estimating equations

Selecting an appropriate working correlation structure is pertinent to clustered data analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) because an inappropriate choice will lead to inefficient parameter estimation. We investigate the well‐known criterion of QIC for selecting a working correlation structure, and have found that performance of the QIC is deteriorated by a term that is theoretically independent of the correlation structures but has to be estimated with an error. This leads us to propose a correlation information criterion (CIC) that substantially improves the QIC performance. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the CIC has remarkable improvement in selecting the correct correlation structures. We also illustrate our findings using a data set from the Madras Longitudinal Schizophrenia Study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

枯草杆菌Bacillus sp F26产过氧化氢酶的发酵条件

从内蒙古呼伦贝尔草原的盐碱湖中分离到的一株低度嗜盐嗜碱细菌Bacillus sp F26，能积累高水平过氧化氢酶（CAT）。对Bacillus sp F26发酵产过氧化氢酶的环境与营养条件的研究结果表明，其积累高水平过氧化氢酶的适宜环境条件为：温度37℃，种龄20-22h，接种量5％，装液量50mL／（250mL的摇瓶）。适宜发酵培养基组成（g／L）为：葡萄糖15，牛肉膏10，玉米浆10，酵母膏5，磷酸二氢钾1，氯化镁0．2，氯化钠50，碳酸钠10。采用上述条件进行摇瓶分批发酵实验，发酵20h，过氧化氢酶酶活达到16．32U／mL，细胞干重为4．12g／L。进一步研究发现，在对数生长后期（16h）添加2mmol／L的H2O2可以明显刺激产酶，在5L的发酵罐上进一步以指数速率方式流加H2O2，由于该流加方式可降低H2O2对细胞的毒害作用，过氧化氢酶酶活达到29．89U／mL，与分批发酵相比提高了92．8％。     

Is the political system really related to health?

We analyze whether the political system and its stability are related to cross-country differences in health. We apply factor analysis on various national health indicators for a large sample of countries over the period 2000–2005 and use the outcomes of the factor analysis to construct two new health measures, i.e., the health of individuals and the quality of the health care sector. Using a cross-country structural equation model with various economic and demographic control variables, we examine the relationship between the type of regime and political stability on the one hand and health on the other. The political variables and the control variables are measured as averages over the period 1980–1999. Our results suggest that democracy has a positive relationship with the health of individuals, while regime instability has a negative relationship with the health of individuals. Government instability is negatively related to individual health via its link with the quality of the health care sector, while democracy is positively related with individual health through its link with income. Our main findings are confirmed by the results of a panel model and various sensitivity tests.     

盲肠结扎穿刺致豚鼠急性肺损伤动物模型建立

目的 研究败血性急性肺损伤的动物模型，并探讨其在急性肺损伤研究中的意义。方法 用盲肠结扎穿刺(CLP)法的豚鼠急性肺损伤模型，结合动脉血气分析、外周血白细胞计数、肺湿重／干重比值(W／D)及肺组织病理观察。结果 CLP模型中动物的症状和表现缓慢出现，逐渐恶化．最后导致败血性休克，于2d左右出现大量死亡。结论 用盲肠结扎穿刺的方法制作豚鼠急性肺损伤动物模型较大鼠内毒素性休克，表现更类似于人类的肠源性肺损伤，且症状缓慢发生，逐渐恶化，有利于观察和进行各种干预。     

碱性成纤维细胞生长因子在实验性硬脑膜重建中的应用

[目的] 探讨碱性成纤维细胞生长因子( bFGF)在实验性自体筋膜硬脑膜重建中的应用价值.[方法]取 SD大鼠 35只,分成 5组.其中 A组 3只,直接将背部筋膜覆盖在硬膜外, B组 5只,采用自体筋膜硬脑膜重建模型,通过免疫组织化学方法观察这两组大鼠自体筋膜硬脑膜移植的愈合过程及细胞因子 bFGF在其中的表达; C组、 D组、 E组各 9只,分别进行自体筋膜硬脑膜重建, D组加用外源性 bFGF, E组仅用明胶海绵,通过脑脊液漏研究、免疫组织化学方法研究外源性 bFGF对自体筋膜重建硬脑膜愈合过程的影响并用 RT- PCR方法研究内源性 bFGF mRNA的表达情况.[结果] 大鼠自体筋膜移植硬脑膜部位 bFGF表达明显; C、 D、 E组大鼠重建硬脑膜抵抗脑脊液漏压力值( mmH2O)分别为 311± 75, 497± 153, 338± 88,Ⅰ型胶原纤维表达值分别为 4.9± 0.8, 10.9± 1.6, 5.3± 0.9, D组均好于对照组( P< 0.05);内源性 bFGF mRNA的表达没有明显变化.[结论] 在自体筋膜移植硬脑膜的愈合过程中 bFGF可能起了重要的作用;外源性 bFGF处理的大鼠其移植筋膜愈合要好于对照组.     

Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Soul City: a sustainable edutainment vehicle facilitating social change

This paper outlines the programming model employed by the Soul City Institute for Health and Development Communication, a South African NGO, in using ‘edutainment’ to facilitate social change. The paper refers to the intersection of this model and current thought on health promotion and various social change theories. It also discusses key challenges and factors contributing to sustainability over 12 years.     

基于双向 S-粗集的动态粗传递模型

根据信息传递中我们需要准确可靠的信息这种实际情况,利用双向S-粗集理论提出了一种动态粗传递模型,即双向S-下近似动态粗传递模型.分析了该模型的特性,得到了信息保持不变、信息发生损失与知识的关系,给出了提高信息传递精确性的方法以及该模型的应用.     

大鼠胰腺十二指肠移植的手术技巧

目的探讨建立大鼠胰腺十二指肠移植模型的手术技巧。方法不阻断体循环，采用双套管将供胰所带腹主动脉、门静脉分别与受鼠的左肾动、静脉进行套管吻合，尽量减轻对全身血流动力学的影响；同时行十二指肠空肠端侧吻合引流胰液，重建胰腺外分泌途径；围手术期注意补液、保暖及抗凝。结果100例手术中83例手术成功，术后移植胰腺具有内分泌功能，胰腺轻度充血水肿。结论该移植模型不阻断体循环且操作简单实用，其成功的关键在于手术操作及围手术期处理。     

个体成长模型在纵向研究中的应用--以大学新生交往主动性为例

目的介绍个体成长模型方法对大学新生适应能力中交往主动性的3次测查数据采用普通回归模型和个体成长模型进行分析。结果个体成长模型的拟合度比普通回归模型的拟合度要好,个体成长模型可在个体水平上分析个体随时间产生的变化。结论个体成长模型具有许多优点,熟悉这种重要的分析方法对纵向数据研究者是非常有益处的。